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Threads has amassed millions of sign ups already; will it dominate Twitter in revenue and user base?



Twitter vs. Instagram threads
Threads by Meta

With an impressive 30 million sign-ups already, will Threads prove a “wake-up call” for Musk or is it just another Fad?

Within a mere 24 hours of its public realease, Threads, Mark’s innovative response to Twitter, had garnered an impressive 30 million sign-ups. This swift uptake establishes Threads as a viable contender within the expansive realm of social media platforms.

It is crucial to note that this figure represents only a fraction of Twitter’s vast user base, which comprises hundreds of millions of individuals. Nevertheless, industry analysts perceive this initial surge as a positive indicator, suggesting that Meta, under Zuckerberg’s leadership, possesses a compelling opportunity to entice a portion of its colossal user base, exceeding three billion across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, to embrace this new platform. Such a migration of users could potentially result in a migration of advertisers as well, bolstering Meta’s prospects further.

Is Threads just a copy paste app?

Meta allegedly hired numerous former Twitter employees who had access to Twitter’s trade secrets and highly confidential information. Twitter contends that a concerning aspect lies in the fact that numerous former Twitter employees retained access to the company’s trade secrets and other highly confidential information. Exploiting this access, Twitter asserts that Meta purposefully enlisted these individuals, tasking them with key responsibilities in the development of Threads
Threads  undoubtedly bears a striking resemblance to Twitter in terms of its visual design and user experience. Notably, the news feed and reposting functionalities on Threads evoke a strong sense of familiarity among users, reminiscent of the features commonly associated with Twitter.

“Musk recently tweeted: I spent $44 billion for this app and now Lizard boy just decided to hit copy and paste. It’s personal now” indicating that he is not stopping.

Revenue streams

Despite his divergent views on advertising compared to Mr. Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, has an impressive track record in the advertising space. With Meta’s sales surpassing $117 billion last year, Mr. Zuckerberg is no stranger to selling adverts. On the other hand, Mr. Musk has expressed his disdain for advertising at Tesla, his electric car company, and has been exploring alternative funding methods for Twitter.

In the case of Threads, Mr. Zuckerberg has initially stated that there will be no ads, allowing the company to focus on refining the app’s functionality. Threads offers users the ability to scroll through text-based posts endlessly. In a statement, Mr. Zuckerberg emphasized that their approach with Threads would follow the same principles as their other products, prioritizing optimal performance and user experience before considering monetization. Only once the app gains a user base of one billion people would they contemplate implementing monetization strategies.

However, Justin Patterson, an equity research analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, believes that eventually, Threads advertisements could contribute between 1% to 5% of Meta’s total revenue. In the most optimistic scenario, this could amount to over $6 billion. While this figure may not appear colossal, it holds significance, particularly as Meta seeks ways to counter the impact of stricter privacy regulations imposed by Apple, which have affected their ad sales.

Moreover, the potential revenue from Threads advertisements places Meta in close proximity to Twitter, which generated $4.5 billion in ad revenue in 2021 before Mr. Musk’s acquisition caused significant upheaval in the company.

User Retention: A Crucial Factor

The retention of users will play a pivotal role in determining the financial success of Threads in the foreseeable future. The evolution and trajectory of this platform will ultimately determine whether the anticipated monetary gains will come to fruition.

In response to Meta’s alleged appropriation of proprietary information, Mr. Musk promptly prepared a countermeasure, reportedly contemplating legal recourse to protect his company’s trade secrets.

However, a growing discontentment with Twitter has created a palpable demand for an alternative social media platform. Meta’s ambitious pledge to establish a “more rational and compassionate environment” than Twitter has undeniably energized early adopters, as highlighted by Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

Critical Factors for Success in Winning Over Users

Securing the allegiance of Twitter’s influential power users, as well as attracting individuals who have yet to join the platform, will be a decisive factor in the triumph of Threads. However, analysts caution that this outcome is far from certain.

While Instagram’s content, primarily focused on fashion and lifestyle, undeniably appeals to advertisers, it remains uncertain whether the market truly demands another platform solely dedicated to such content.

Mark Zuckerberg’s relationship with news is complex, particularly considering that news dissemination is one of Twitter’s primary functions. He has expressed that user surveys indicate a desire for less news on the platforms under his purview. Notably, in Canada, his company is preparing to block local news reporting instead of compensating news providers for their content.

“Devoted news enthusiasts and fervent Twitter supporters are unlikely to abandon the platform, and Meta must ensure that Threads remains captivating to sustain its momentum once the initial allure subsides,” explained Ms. Enberg. She further remarked that Mr. Zuckerberg, who has faced criticism in the past for replicating existing products, has encountered difficulties when it comes to fostering innovation.

Navigating Regulatory Risks

Advertisers are seeking reassurance that their investments are not susceptible to risks associated with issues such as misinformation and privacy on the platform.

Under the leadership of Mr. Musk, Twitter, which has faced profitability challenges, has created a sense of unease among advertisers due to sudden changes in content moderation practices and, more recently, a new limitation on post visibility.

Analysts assert that Meta has already reaped the benefits of Twitter’s loss of business.

However, Mr. Zuckerberg’s track record is not without blemishes either. His company has long been embroiled in disputes with marketers regarding the transparency and accuracy of its data. Additionally, its management of user data and handling of misinformation have attracted widespread criticism.

“Advertisers seek a clean and well-regulated environment where content is consistently moderated according to agreed-upon terms and conditions,” stated Lou Paskalis, a seasoned marketing professional and CEO of AJL Advisory. “Overall, the current state of social media can be likened to a chaotic situation.”


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